Fab 5 China EV sales came in stronger than expected as new product cycles at Li Auto and NIO really start to kick in, leading to record monthly volumes despite a weak macro backdrop, said Edison Yu's team.
China's major new car makers announced their November deliveries yesterday, and as usual, Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu's team offers their take.
Of these five companies, NIO, Li Auto, and Zeekr all had record deliveries in November, XPeng's performance improved from October, while Neta slipped.
Here's what Yu's team had to say about the numbers.
LI and NIO roar back on new product cycles
Fab 5 China EV sales came in stronger than expected as new product cycles at Li Auto and NIO really start to kick in, leading to record monthly volumes despite a weak macro backdrop.
At the same time, XPeng saw MoM improvement after four consecutive months of declines.
Zeekr continues to impress with its 001 model delivering another MoM increase. However, Neta appears to be finally losing some momentum with sales down 16% sequentially.
As for industry volume, CPCA is pegging total NEV (BEV + PHEV) retail sales around 600k for November, which would be weaker than our latest forecast and below September's 611k, but up from October's 556k.
Depending on how December demand trends, we think there is some chance the NEV subsidies could be extended, perhaps with the government implementing a 50% cut rather than full phase out.
November EV sales
Li Auto delivered a record high 15,034 units (+50% MoM, +11% YoY), easily beating our forecast. The L9 continues to sell well, claiming the top selling spot for full-size premium SUV segment for a second consecutive month; the smaller L8 also began deliveries in early Nov. We expect December to show further growth, potentially >20,000 units.
Cumulative deliveries have now reached 236,101, supported by 275 retail stores and 317 servicing centers. Earnings will be reported next week on 12/9.
NIO delivered a record high 14,178 units (+41% MoM and +30% YoY), above our forecast. Deliveries of ET5 encouragingly rose sequentially to 2,968 units compared to 1,030 in Oct, still held back by silicon carbide bottlenecks at Onsemi.
ES7 SUV sales came higher than expected at 4,897 while ET7 sedan was weaker at 3,207 despite shorter wait times.
The company continues to expect improvement in Dec and in our view, the bogey is 18,000-20,000.
Cumulative deliveries of vehicles have now reached 273,741, supported by 409 retail locations (91 Houses + 318 Spaces) and 1,245 battery swap stations, of which 330 are located along highways.
XPeng delivered 5,811 units (+14% MoM; -63% YoY), better than our recently lowered forecast but naturally in-line with guidance given yesterday. Sales continue to struggle as XPeng gets ready to introduce its next generation of cars. G9 volume did improve to 1,546 units vs. 623 in Oct.
For Dec, the company expects around 10,000 units with G9 representing at least half of that. See our earnings first look here.
Zeekr delivered record monthly sales again at 11,011, up from October's 10,119. Average order valued was +336k RMB. Cumulative deliveries have now reached 66,611.
Hozon sold 15,072 units of its Neta-branded EVs (-16% MoM; +51% YoY), showing some slowdown in momentum.