Ahead of the major electric vehicle (EV) makers' intensive May delivery announcements this Sunday, Deutsche Bank analysts has shared their preview as before.
Nio Inc (NYSE: NIO) is expected to deliver about 27,000 units in May, up 31 percent year-on-year and up 13 percent sequentially, analyst Wang Bin's team said in a research note today.
The team expects the Nio main brand to deliver 17,000 units in May, with 7,000 units for its sub-brand Onvo and 3,000 units for another sub-brand Firefly.
Nio Inc's domestic retail sales in the first four weeks of May totaled 24,000 units, the bank noted.
Nio Inc's new order flow in May is expected to be down about 8 percent month-on-month to about 33,000 units, with the Nio, Onvo and Firefly brands expected to be at about 25,000, 7,000 and 1,000 units, respectively, according to the note.
Thanks to the launch of the facelifted ES6 SUV (sport utility vehicle) and EC6 coupe SUV on May 16 and the all-new sedans ET5 and ET5T on May 25, new orders for the Nio brand are expected to increase a sequential basis in May, the team said.
Nio Inc delivered 23,900 vehicles in April, its second highest ever, after 31,138 in December last year, according to figures it announced on May 1.
The Nio brand delivered 19,269 vehicles in April, up 23.36 percent year-on-year and up 88.56 percent from March.
Onvo delivered 4,400 vehicles in April, down 8.71 percent from 4,820 in March.
Firefly delivered 231 vehicles in April. Its effective delivery dates in April were April 29 and April 30.
Deutsche Bank expects Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) to deliver about 39,000 units in China's domestic market in May, up about 32 percent from April but down about 30 percent from a year ago.
Tesla's domestic retail sales in China totaled 32,000 units in the first four weeks of May, the team noted.
Based on dealer feedback, Tesla China's new order flow in May was down about 3 percent from a year earlier and are expected to be about 39,000 units, Deutsche Bank said.
Of these, about 31,000 were for the Model Y and 8,000 for the Model 3, in line with the May delivery estimate.
Tesla sold 28,731 vehicles in China's domestic market in April, down 8.56 percent from 31,421 in the same month a year ago and down 61.24 percent from 74,127 in March, according to data compiled by CnEVPost.
Tesla's Shanghai factory exported 29,728 vehicles in April, down 3.31 percent from 30,746 a year earlier while up 532.38 percent from 4,701 in March.
Deutsche Bank expects BYD (HKG: 1211, OTCMKTS: BYDDY) to report wholesale volume of about 390,000 units in May, up 3 percent sequentially.
Wang's team expects BYD to deliver about 290,000 units domestically in China in May, up 10 percent year-on-year and up 11 percent sequentially.
In the first four weeks of May, BYD's wholesale sales reached 273,000 units and domestic retail sales totaled 257,000 units, according to Deutsche Bank.
Thanks to BYD's increased retail price discounts, new orders in May amounted to about 350,000 units, up about 10 percent from a month earlier, Deutsche Bank said, citing dealer feedback.
BYD's wholesale sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in April were 380,089 units, up 21.34 percent year-on-year and up 0.71 percent from March, according to data it announced on May 1.
Deutsche Bank expects Xiaomi (HKG: 1810, OTCMKTS: XIACY) to deliver about 28,000 units in May, down about 2 percent from a month earlier, due to a temporary production pause during the May Day holiday.
Xiaomi EV domestic retail sales totaled 25,000 units in the first four weeks of May, the team noted.
Xiaomi EV's new order flow in May is expected to be around 23,000 units, down 36 percent sequentially, leaving the estimated order backlog at the end of May at around 200,000 units, Deutsche Bank said.
Wang's team attributed the sequential new order decline to the fact that some potential car buyers are waiting for the Xiaomi YU7 SUV (sport utility vehicle).
In addition, given Xiaomi's current waiting time of about seven months, some buyers are concerned about the collection of the NEV purchase tax and the elimination of the trade-in subsidy in 2026, the team said.
Xiaomi EV said on May 1 that it delivered more than 28,000 units in April, without giving a specific figure.
Deutsche Bank expects Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV) to deliver about 32,000 units in May, up about 215 percent year-on-year while down about 9 percent sequentially.
That includes domestic retail deliveries of about 28,000 units and overseas deliveries of about 4,000 units, the team said.
Xpeng's domestic retail sales totaled 24,000 units in the first four weeks of May, the team noted.
Based on dealer feedback, new order flow for May is expected to be around 34,000 units, up 10 percent from a month ago, despite Xpeng keeping promotional efforts unchanged, the team said.
Xpeng delivered 35,045 units in April, the second highest ever, behind December 2024's 36,695 units.
Deutsche Bank expects Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) to deliver 45,000 units in May, up 28 percent year-on-year and 33 percent sequentially.
Li Auto had domestic retail sales of 39,000 units in the first four weeks of May, the team noted.
The company's new order flow in May is expected to be around 55,000 units, thanks to the launch of its facelifted models.
Li Auto launched the refreshed Li Mega MPV (multi-purpose vehicle) on April 23 and the refreshed L-series of extended-range electric vehicle (EREV) models, including the Li L6, Li L7, Li L8, and Li L9, on May 8.
The company delivered 33,939 vehicles in April, up 31.61 percent from 25,787 a year ago but down 7.46 percent from 36,674 in March.
Deutsche Bank expects Zeekr Group's (NYSE: ZK) total sales in May, including exports, to be 43,000 units, up 6 percent year-on-year and up 4 percent sequentially.
Zeekr Group's domestic deliveries in May are expected be about 40,000 units, up 8 percent year-on-year and up 25 percent sequentially, according to Deutsche Bank. This includes about 17,000 units under the Zeekr brand and 23,000 under the Lynk & Co brand.
The group's domestic retail sales totaled 35,000 units in the first four weeks of May, the team said.
Zeekr Group delivered 41,316 vehicles in April, up 1.48 percent from 40,715 in March.
The Zeekr brand delivered 13,727 vehicles in April, down 14.68 percent year-on-year and down 10.99 percent from March. Lynk & Co delivered 27,589 vehicles in April, up 47.32 percent year-on-year and up 9.08 percent from March.
Deutsche Bank expects Leapmotor (HKG: 9863) to sell about 41,000 units in May, up about 150 percent year-on-year and flat sequentially.
Of these, domestic retail sales are estimated at about 33,000 units, exports are about 6,000 units, and dealer inventories are set to increase by about 2,000 units.
Leapmotor's domestic retail sales totaled 29,000 units in the first four weeks of May, according to Deutsche Bank.
Based on dealer feedback, Leapmotor's new order flow in May is expected to be up 6 percent sequentially to about 50,000 units, including about 15,000 B10 SUVs, 30,000 C-series SUVs and 5,000 T03 hatchbacks.
Leapmotor delivered 41,039 units in April, its second highest ever, behind December 2024's 42,517 units.
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