Only ramp up of production courtesy of NeoPark will be final hurdle for direct comparisons of market cap Nio Vs TSLA.
Editor's note: This is a guest post from Rafi Khan, an Nio investor, and does not represent the views of CnEVPost.
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Best news for Nio (NYSE: NIO, HKG: 9866) yesterday was perhaps TSLA 8 percent rise to approx $1.1 Trillion market cap.
Because when Nio establishes beyond doubt:
● EV Batteries
● Autonomy
● Raw Computing
● Infotainment
● Product Line
Clearly equal to or superior to TSLA.
Then only ramp-up of production courtesy of NeoPark will be final hurdle for direct comparisons of market cap Nio Vs TSLA (could be 50,000 for Nio by December 2022 Vs 150,000 for TSLA).
At that time there may be NO reason for 30x market cap. of TSLA Vs Nio. Especially as Nio EV average selling price ("ASP") is slated to be 150 percent that of TSLA.
● EV Batteries -- WeLion has started Feb 2022 construction of Phase One 20 GWh Semi-Solid State battery facility slated to come into production 4Q 2022 (perhaps 1H 2023).
WeLion claims 150 kWh that will be mass-produced will have the highest safety; highest energy density of any battery currently being produced plus cost per kWh similar to current liquid batteries.
20 GWh plant (Phase One of 100 GWh plant costing $6.3 Billion) will enable Nio to access 130,000 batteries from WeLion annually.
Couple that to CATL upcoming Kirin Battery said to have 13 percent more power compared to TSLA 4680 -- Then Nio can legitimately claim global equivalence or even superiority vis a vis TSLA in the EV battery segment.
● Autonomy – "Xpeng's City NGP to be launched this year will outperform Tesla FSD, CEO says"
Xpeng's City NGP to be launched this year will outperform Tesla FSD, CEO says
Now we hear: "Former Xpeng self-driving product head said to have joined Nio"
Former Xpeng self-driving product head said to have joined Nio
Many experts claim Xpeng is ahead of TSLA in Autonomy – certainly Xpeng is confident of that being the case in 2022. Given Nio adoption of 4 NVDA Orin SOC chips combined with more than double 2022 R&D budget focused on autonomy combined with the hiring of Xpeng former self-driving product head – Nio can legitimately make a case of challenging for market leadership in autonomy.
● Raw computing – Using 4 NVDA SOC Orin Chips Nio has 1016 TOPS (Trillion Operations Per Second) raw computing power which is 7x the computing power of TSLA FSD.
That is computing power never before conceived in any automobile plus Nio uses LiDAR not deployed by TSLA – Nio can certainly claim global leadership in EV computing power that even TSLA cannot match.
● Infotainment – PanoCinema; Immersive Dolby Surround Sound System, AR/VR; Cloud Services, 5G connectivity, 24/7 OTA potential; QCOM latest Digital Cockpit Snapdragon chips – Attributes never hitherto appearing in any vehicle produced & most certainly superior to TSLA.
● Product Line – In the RMB 300,000 to 700,000 range there are no gaps or weaknesses in Nio Product Lines especially when you factor in the Upgrade on current EC6, ES6 & ES8 products in May 2022.
No other EV company can make that claim as I do NOT consider TSLA Model S & Model X serious competitors to Nio ET7.
Hundreds of ET7 laying in the Nio parking lot waiting to go out to delivery is the scenario that Mercedes, BMW, Audi can only dream of in the Premium Luxury segment which TSLA has virtually abandoned at least in China – So again Nio leadership in Product Lines & bandwidth with potential for dominance.
Above 5 key areas of EV business are segments where Nio can legitimately claim to have leadership in China (moving as well onto Europe) with potential for dominance.
Add to that:
● Nio House
● Nio Battery Swap
● Nio Battery Upgrade
● Nio Warranty
● Nio Service
● Nio Life / Eco System
● Nio lowest Product Failures
● Nio highest customer satisfaction
So with possible scenario in December 2022 of:
● Nio monthly sales 50,000 (equivalent to 75,000 TSLA sales as Nio ASP is 50 percent greater)
● TSLA monthly sales 150,000
ADD to that Nio Global Leadership in EV Batteries; Autonomy; Raw Computing; Infotainment; Product Line
Ask yourself what will be multiple of TSLA market cap to that of Nio.
So let TSLA moon – As Nio Bull, I am loving it!!
Not an Auto Analyst Nor Financial Advisor JMHO DYODD
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