Before major electric vehicle (EV) makers release their July sales figures on Friday, Deutsche Bank shared its forecasts, as it has done previously.
Analyst Wang Bin's team said in a research note today that Nio Inc (NYSE: NIO) is expected to deliver about 21,000 vehicles in July, a year-on-year increase of 2 percent but a sequential decrease of 16 percent.
Deliveries for the Nio, Onvo, and Firefly brands are estimated to be about 12,000, 6,000, and 3,000 units, respectively.
Nio Inc's domestic retail sales for the first four weeks of July were about 19,000 units, the team noted.
Nio Inc is expected to see a month-on-month increase of about 11 percent in new order flow for the full month of July, reaching about 26,000 units, the team cited dealer feedback as saying.
Among them, the new order flow for the Nio, Onvo, and Firefly brands were about 17,000 units, 7,000 units, and 2,000 units, respectively.
Onvo unveiled its second product, the L90, on July 10, with a highly competitive pre-sales price of about RMB 280,000 yuan (39,000 $), the team noted, adding that the official launch of this model will meaningfully boost Nio Inc's new order volume in August.
Onvo will hold the launch event for the L90 in Hangzhou at 7:30 pm Beijing Time on July 31, the Nio sub-brand announced yesterday.
Nio Inc delivered 24,925 vehicles in June, marking a new high for the year and the second-highest on record, with a year-on-year increase of 17.52 percent and a month-on-month increase of 7.29 percent, according to data released on July 1.
The Nio main brand delivered 14,593 vehicles in June, Onvo delivered 6,400 vehicles, and Firefly delivered 3,932 vehicles.
Firefly president Daniel Jin said yesterday that the brand had completed production line adjustments and would ramp up production this week.
Deutsche Bank expects Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) to deliver about 42,300 vehicles in China in July, down about 10 percent year-on-year and down 31 percent month-on-month.
Tesla's retail sales in China totaled 38,000 vehicles in the first four weeks of July, the team noted.
According to dealer feedback, Tesla China's new order flow in July is expected to be about 66,000 units, up about 10 percent year-on-year and up u27 percent month-on-month, the team said.
Among them, the Model Y accounted for about 47,000 units and the Model 3 about 19,000 units, as Tesla increased the range of both the Model 3 and Model Y by about 5 percent in July, Deutsche Bank said.
The US EV maker sold 61,484 vehicles in China in June, the second highest monthly figure this year, trailing only March's 74,127 units, according to data compiled by CnEVPost.
On July 1, Tesla slightly upgraded the long-range versions of the Model 3 and Model Y in China, with price for the former seeing an increase while the latter remained unchanged.
Deutsche Bank estimates that BYD (HKG: 1211, OTCMKTS: BYDDY) will have wholesale sales of about 345,000 vehicles in July, flat year-on-year and down about 10 percent month-on-month.
In the domestic market, BYD's July deliveries are estimated to be around 265,000 units, down 15 percent year-on-year and down 22 percent month-on-month.
BYD's domestic retail sales for the first four weeks of July totaled 235,000 units, the team noted.
Dealer feedback indicates that, as BYD's retail price discount policy in July remained largely unchanged from June, the company's total new order flow for the month is about 345,000 units, flat month-on-month.
Deutsche Bank expects the company's overseas sales in July to remain at around 90,000 to 100,000 units, with dealers likely to continue de-stocking efforts during the month.
For example, the company may reduce the per-model average stock-keeping units (SKUs) from 5-6 to 2-3 in the third quarter of 2025, the team said.
BYD's wholesale sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in June were 382,585 units, with overseas sales of 90,049 units.
Deutsche Bank expects Xiaomi EV's July deliveries to be about 30,000 units, up about 18 percent month-on-month and up about 120 percent year-on-year, setting a new monthly delivery record.
Xiaomi EV's domestic retail sales for the first four weeks of July totaled 26,400 units, according to the team.
Based on dealer feedback, Xiaomi EV's new order flow for July is expected to be about 113,000 units, including about 100,000 units of the YU7 SUV (sport utility vehicle) and about 13,000 units of the SU7 sedan series, the team said.
"We attribute Xiaomi EV's sequential increase in delivery to improved supply, as Xiaomi EV's June production volume was 28,336 units vs. 25,459 units of sales, leaving a gap of 2,877 units of the 'ready-for-sale' YU7 SUV for delivery in July," Wang's team wrote.
The team expects Xiaomi EV's second factory to begin production in September, which could significantly boost monthly sales in the fourth quarter to above 50,000 units.
Deutsche Bank expects Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV) to deliver about 35,000 vehicles in July, flat month-on-month. Of these, domestic retail deliveries are expected to be about 31,000 units, while overseas deliveries are expected to be about 4,000 units.
Xpeng's domestic retail volume totaled 27,400 units in the first four weeks of July, the team noted.
According to dealer feedback, Xpeng is expected to receive about 45,000 new orders in July, up 10 percent month-on-month, primarily driven by contributions from the new G7 SUV, while new orders for other models declined month-on-month, the team said.
Xpeng launched the G7 on July 3 with a starting price of RMB 195,800. The model received over 10,000 firm orders within the first nine minutes.
The company expects annual sales of the G7 to be around 100,000 units, which translates to monthly sales of around 8,000 units, Deutsche Bank noted.
Earlier today, Xpeng announced that it will debut its new P7 sedan in Beijing on August 6.
Xpeng delivered 34,611 vehicles in June, a year-on-year increase of 224.44 percent and a month-on-month increase of 3.24 percent.
Deutsche Bank estimates that Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) deliveries to come in at about 32,000 vehicles in July, a year-on-year decrease of 37 percent and a month-on-month decrease of 12 percent.
The company's domestic retail sales totaled 29,000 units in the first four weeks of July, the team noted.
According to dealer feedback, Li Auto's new order flow for July is expected to be about 39,000 units, up about 5 percent month-on-month.
This is due to its new five-year zero-interest auto finance plan for the Li L6, which is expected to drive a month-on-month increase of about 12 percent in new orders for the model in July, Deutsche Bank said.
Li Auto delivered 36,279 vehicles in June, down 24.06 percent year-on-year and down 11.20 percent month-on-month.
The company officially launched the Li i8, its first electric SUV, yesterday. Today, its share price plummeted on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
The team expects Leapmotor (HKG: 9863) to deliver about 50,000 units in July, representing a year-on-year increase of about 126 percent and a month-on-month increase of about 4 percent.
Of these, domestic retail sales are estimated at about 39,000 units, exports at about 3,000 units, and dealer inventory to increase by about 8,000 units.
Leapmotor achieved domestic retail sales of 35,000 units in the first four weeks of July, according to Deutsche Bank.
Based on dealer feedback, Leapmotor is expected to see a month-on-month increase of about 46 percent in new orders in July, reaching about 60,000 units.
Leapmotor launched the B01 electric sedan on July 24, with a starting price of RMB 89,800 ($12,510). The model received 10,132 locked-in orders within 72 hours of its launch.
Earlier today, the company said that the B01 reached 10,000 units in production during its first week on the market.
Deutsche Bank expects Huawei-backed Aito to deliver about 42,400 units in July, up about 1 percent year-on-year while down about 5 percent month-on-month.
Aito's domestic retail sales totaled 38,000 units in the first four weeks of July, the team noted.
According to dealer feedback, Aito's new order flow for July is expected to be about 30,500 units, down 3 percent month-on-month, with about 15,000 units for the M8, about 7,000 units for the M9, about 4,500 units for the M5, and about 4,000 units for the M7.
Aito began pre-sales of the battery electric vehicle (BEV) variant of the M8 on July 25, with the launch scheduled for August.
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