Huachuang Securities analysts are optimistic about the fundamentals of the Chinese auto industry and is optimistic about the new energy flagship models of independent and new energy vehicle startups this year, and the models that explode accurately cut consumer demand.
They said in a recent report that With the gradual stabilization of the economic environment, the car-sharing market is restarted and active, and ToB sales are expected to continue to increase in the second half of the year.
Watch the investment opportunities and valuation flexibility brought by the revolution of the electric and intelligent industry.
The following is a translation of the original report:
August's new energy passenger cars improved sharply on a like-for-like basis, with A00-class small cars accounting for a significantly higher share.
The strong growth in August was mainly due to the strong sales performance of Wuling Hongguang Mini and Tesla Model 3, which were driven by the strong sales of Wuling Hongguang Mini and Tesla Model 3, and the significant increase in the share of A00-class electric vehicles.
Driven by the Wuling Hongguang Mini's strong sales, the A00 class EV sales share increased significantly, up 15.7PP to 31% from the previous month.
Hot sales of Tesla Model 3 and Wuling Hongguang Mini kick-started growth at both high and low poles.
Tesla Model 3 sold 12,000 units in August, +7% q-o-q. Cumulative sales of around 70,000 units in the first 8 months, 14% cumulative share, and is expected to be the model sales champion for the year with 130,000-150,000 units.
Wuling Hongguang Mini sold 19,000 units in August, +25% q-o-q, making it an A00-class hit.
Among the top 10 new energy passenger cars sold in August, autonomous and new energy vehicle startups occupy 9 seats.
This month, not only the high-end autonomous and new energy vehicle startups models continued the chain growth trend, low-end small cars such as Ola R1, Chery eQ1 also quickly recovered.
EV sales switch from the first half of the high-end car unipolar support to high and low poles of growth, BEV model sales in the top ten.
1) The GAC Aion S finished 0.4 million units, up from the previous year, and in third place.
(2) Ola R1 finished at 0.37 million and Chery eQ1 finished at 0.33 million, ranking four and five.
(3) Nio ES8, Li ONE, WM Motor EX5 sales up from the previous year.
4) BYD Han EV 0.24 million units, BYD Qin 0.24 million units.
The explosion of models precisely hit consumer demand, and the growth of mid-range EVs was temporarily suppressed.
The continued popularity of Tesla Model 3 has increased consumers' interest in the intelligence, service experience and driving performance of high-end EVs, benefiting new energy vehicle startups such as Nio and Xiaopeng, as well as mid-range and high-end models such as BYD Han.
The Wuling Hongguang Mini, newly launched in July, is priced as low as RMB 30,000 to RMB 40,000 and is extremely economical to meet consumer demand for transportation.
In the fiercely competitive mid-range car market, the relatively low price of fuel vehicles and the relaxed licensing policy has suppressed the sales growth of mid-range EVs.
The car-sharing business environment improved, the heat increased, and ToB-end sales are expected to be activated.
In the second quarter, macroeconomic expectations are stable and economic activities are back to normal. At the same time, policies have provided guidance and subsidies to the consumption of new energy vehicles and the construction of charging facilities, so the car-sharing market is active again.
In August, 17,000 electric vehicles of operational nature were sold (BOC), +86% YoY, and +16% YoY, and the sales share increased to 19%, achieving significant growth. Sales on the new energy ToB side are expected to be activated by increased competition from car sharing.
(1) On July 22, Didi launched "Flower Piggy Taxi" with a free + 20% discount on the first order.
(2) By the end of August, T3 travel layout 9 cities, the first single minimum $0, target market share of more than 30%.
(3) On September 1, Didi announced that it was investing $100 million in a special subsidy to launch a "fast new rental" service.
(4) On September 9, Cao Cao Travel plans to launch its car rental business in 19 cities, including Chongqing and Wenzhou.
(5) On September 10, the first car test runs in Lhasa.
We maintain our full-year forecast of 1.12 million units/-7% for new energy vehicles, with the operating nature of new energy vehicle sales accounting for 1Q20 14%, 2Q20 15%, 3Q20E 19%, 4Q20E 24%, and the full year is expected to return to 20%.
Investment recommendations:
We are optimistic about the follow-up fundamentals of the auto industry and are optimistic about the new energy flagship models of independent and new energy vehicle startups this year, as well as new energy models that accurately meet consumer demand.
With the gradual stabilization of the economic environment, the car-sharing market has been restarted, and ToB sales are expected to continue to increase in the second half of the year.
The new car-sharing market will be active again in the second half of the year.
