Analysts at Deutsche Bank expect Nio (NYSE: NIO), Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV) and Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) to all see strong growth in 2025, driven primarily by new models.
Nio's full-year deliveries in 2025 is expected to double year-on-year to about 450,000 units, analyst Wang Bin's team said in a research note yesterday.
The team first mentioned the same forecast after Nio reported third-quarter earnings in late November, using the same full-year 2025 sales assumptions as Nio's guidance.
Nio Inc delivered 221,970 vehicles in 2024, including 201,209 under the Nio main brand and 20,761 under the Onvo sub-brand.
Wang's team expects Onvo to deliver about 220,000 units in 2025, including 180,000 units of its first model, the L60.
The team attributes the Onvo brand's likely decent growth in 2025 to an expanded retail store network, an expanded product portfolio, and improved battery swap capabilities.
They expect Onvo to launch the six-seat large SUV L90, codenamed BLANC, in the third quarter of 2025 and add the five-seat SUV L80, codenamed ROSA, in the fourth quarter.
The team's sales forecast for the Nio brand for the full year 2025 is to grow by only 10 percent year-on-year to about 223,000 units, as the Nio brand aims to prioritize profitability over volume growth in 2025.
They expect the Nio brand to refresh five products in the second half of 2025, such as the next-generation ES7 SUV, ES6 SUV, EC6 SUV, ET5 sedan and ET5 Touring.
In particular, the team expects Nio to upgrade the ES7 to a ultra-large size six-seater SUV.
In another research note yesterday, Deutsche Bank expects Xpeng to deliver 400,000 units for the full year 2025.
The forecast represents a year-on-year growth of about 110 percent, considering that Xpeng delivered 190,068 vehicles in the full year of 2024.
Xpeng's delivery growth in 2025 will be largely attributed to a strong order backlog for the Mona M03 and P7+, as well as a strong new product plan, Wang's team said.
The company plans to launch at least four new products in 2025, with at least one new product launch per quarter, the team noted.
These new products include its first extended-range electric vehicle (EREV) model, a large SUV (sport utility vehicle) to be launched in the fourth quarter, the team said.
In addition, Xpeng will update existing products such as the G6 SUV and G9 SUV with the latest technology, the team noted.
Xpeng aims to break even by the end of 2025, when it could sell more than 40,000 units a month, Deutsche Bank said.
The team expects Li Auto to deliver 700,000 units in 2025, representing a 40 percent increase relative to the 500,508 units delivered in 2024.
They expect Li Auto to deliver 630,000 EREVs and 70,000 battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in 2025.
Li Auto currently sells four EREVs, the Li L6, Li L7, Li L8 and Li L9, as well as the all-electric Li Mega MPV (multi-purpose vehicle).
Deutsche Bank expects Li Auto to launch the i6 large pure-electric SUV in mid-2025, with a price range of RMB 200,000 ($27,400) to RMB 250,000.
This price range will be a greenfield market for Li Auto's portfolio, as all of its products currently only cover the RMB 250,000+ price market, the team noted.
They also anticipate that Li Auto could launch an ultra-large-size SUV in the second half of 2025.
($1 = RMB 7.2998)
Related posts on CnEVPost
