Deutsche Bank expects the Nio brand to deliver 17,000 units in November and the Onvo sub-brand 5,000 units.
China's major electric vehicle (EV) makers are set to announce their deliveries or sales figures for November on Sunday, and as usual, Deutsche Bank shared their forecasts before then.
In a research note sent to investors yesterday, analyst Wang Bin's team expects the strong momentum of major EV players to continue in November.
The team forecasts Nio (NYSE: NIO) to retail 22,000 units in November, up 38 percent year-on-year and up 5 percent sequentially.
In the first three weeks of November, Nio's domestic retail sales totaled 14,000 units, according to the team.
The team expects the Nio brand to deliver 17,000 units and the Onvo sub-brand 5,000 units in November.
Based on dealer feedback, Nio's total new order flow in November is estimated to be around 30,000 units, with the Nio brand at around 17,000 units and the Onvo brand at around 13,000 units, according to Deutsche Bank.
The Nio brand operation had reduced promotions by RMB 15,000 per vehicle in October and largely carried over into November, the team noted.
Nio Inc delivered 20,976 vehicles in October, including 16,657 under the main Nio brand and 4,319 under Onvo, according to figures announced by the company on November 1.
Nio guided fourth-quarter vehicle deliveries to be in the range of 72,000 to 75,000 vehicles, representing year-on-year growth of about 43.9 percent to 49.9 percent, in its third-quarter earnings report released on November 20.
That guidance means Nio could deliver a total of 51,024 to 54,024 vehicles in November and December, with full-year deliveries expected to be in the range of 221,000 to 224,000 vehicles.
Deutsche Bank expects BYD (HKG: 1211, OTCMKTS: BYDDY) to post record wholesale volume of around 520,000 units for the full month of November, up 72 percent year-on-year and up 4 percent sequentially.
Based on dealer feedback, BYD's new order flow for November is estimated to be around 500,000 units, which is largely in line with domestic wholesales volume, the team said.
In the first three weeks of November, BYD's domestic retail sales volume totaled 288,000 units, the team said, adding that they estimate BYD's full-month domestic deliveries in November to be around 420,000 units, flat from October and up 83 percent year-on-year.
In the first 17 days of November, BYD's wholesale volume reached 305,000 units, the team said.
BYD sold 502,657 new energy vehicles (NEVs) in October, surpassing the 500,000 mark for the first time and marking the fifth consecutive month of record highs, according to data it released on November 1.
The company's passenger NEV retail sales in China in October were 431,367 vehicles, continuing to rank first with a 36.1 percent share, according to the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA).
Deutsche Bank expects Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) China to deliver a record 80,000 vehicles in November, up 18 percent year-on-year and up 93 percent from October.
Tesla China's domestic retail sales in the first three weeks of November totaled 51,000 units, the team said.
Before the new generation Model Y's debut in the first quarter of 2025, Tesla extended its five-year, zero-interest auto financing program to the end of 2024 and began offering a RMB 10,000 cash discount on the Model Y, the team noted.
In addition, Tesla Model 3 wait time in China shortened to 1-3 weeks on November 19 from 2-4 weeks previously, and Model Y remained unchanged at 1-3 weeks, according to CnEVPost's monitoring.
Deutsche Bank expects Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) to deliver about 52,000 units in November, up 27 percent year-on-year and flat sequentially.
Li Auto's domestic retail sales totaled 35,600 units in the first three weeks of November, the team noted.
The company adjusted its promotions in November by raising its auto finance interest rate from 1.99 percent in October to 2.20 percent in November, and increasing the accessary purchase incentives for Li L7, Li L8, Li L9, and Li Mega from RMB 5,000 in October to RMB 8,000 in November, according to the team.
At the same time, Li Auto has also started offering a RMB 2,000 cash discount for Li L7, Li L8, Li L9, and Li Mega, the team said.
Deutsche Bank expects Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV)'s retail sales in November to be around 30,000 units, up 50 percent year-on-year and up 25 percent sequentially.
The team expects Xpeng to report domestic deliveries of 26,000 units and overseas deliveries of 4,000 units in November.
Xpeng's domestic retail deliveries totaled 17,000 units in the first three weeks of November, the team noted.
On the product front, Deutsche Bank estimates that Xpeng woud deliver about 11,000 units of the Mona M03 sedan and about 5,500 units of the P7+ sedan, with the remaining 13,500 units estimated to come from Xpeng's other products.
Xpeng officially launched the Mona M03 on August 27 and deliveries began on August 30.
Monthly production capacity for the Mona M03 would reach 20,000 units by the Chinese New Year to support the model's hot sales, the company said at a media briefing on November 15 on the first day of the 2024 Guangzhou auto show.
The P7+ was launched on November 7 and deliveries started on November 11.
Xpeng ramped up discounts on the P7i, G9 and G6 as most customers' attention was drawn to the new models Mona M03 and P7+, Deutsche Bank said.
Deutsche Bank expects Zeekr (NYSE: ZK) to retail 30,000 units in November, up 130 percent year-on-year and up 20 percent sequentially.
The Zeekr 7X SUV (sport utility vehicle) is expected to retail about 12,000 units in November and other products about 18,000 units, the team said.
Zeekr's domestic retail sales in the first three weeks of November totaled 18,000 units, according to the team.
The EV maker launched the Zeekr 7X, its second model for the mainstream EV market, on September 20, with deliveries starting on September 21.
Zeekr said on November 11 that deliveries of the Zeekr 7X topped 20,000 units, 50 days after the model's launch.
Deutsche Bank expects Leapmotor (HKG: 9863) to sell 40,000 units in November, up 115 percent year-on-year and up 5 percent sequentially.
Leapmotor's domestic retail sales in November are expected to be around 37,000 units and exports around 3,000 units, according to the team.
In the first three weeks of November, Leapmotor's domestic retail sales totaled 26,000 units, DB noted.
Deutsche Bank expects the Huawei-backed Aito brand to deliver about 31,000 units in November, down 6 percent from a year earlier.
In the first three weeks of November, Aito domestic retail sales totaled 21,300 units, the team said.
Onvo president reiterates confidence of delivering over 10,000 units in Dec
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