New order flow for the Nio brand is estimated at about 19,000 units in October, flat from September, but sub-brand Onvo is estimated at about 15,000 units in October, according to Deutsche Bank.
With China's major electric vehicle (EV) makers set to release their deliveries or sales figures for October on Friday, Deutsche Bank shared their forecasts as it has done in the past.
In a research note sent to investors yesterday, analyst Wang Bin's team expects the major EV players to see another record sales month in October.
The team forecast Nio (NYSE: NIO) to deliver about 24,500 units in the full month of October, its highest monthly delivery since inception, up 53 percent year-on-year and up 16 percent sequentially.
In the first four weeks of October, Nio's domestic retail sales totaled 20,500 units, the team noted.
Based on dealer feedback, new order flow for the Nio brand is estimated to be around 19,000 units in October, flat from September, but sub-brand Onvo's new order flow is estimated to be around 15,000 units in October, the team said.
Onvo L60 has started deliveries of 832 units in September and deliveries in October are expected to reach about 3,600 units, according to the team.
Monthly L60 production capacity will increase from 5,000 units in October to 10,000 units in December, and then to 16,000 and 20,000 units in January and March 2025, respectively, Nio had guided.
To maintain the new order flow for the Nio brand, the company also ramped up promotions in October.
Nio increased accessary purchase bonus by RMB 2,000 ($280) per vehicle, from RM B18,000 in September to RMB 20,000 in October, applicable to all Nio-branded products, according to the team.
The Onvo L60 SUV (sport utility vehicle) was launched on September 19 and deliveries began on September 28.
Nio Inc delivered 21,181 vehicles in September, marking the fifth consecutive month of deliveries above the 20,000 mark, including 20,349 for the main Nio brand and 832 for Onvo.
Deutsche Bank expected Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV) to deliver about 23,000 vehicles in October, up 15 percent year-on-year and up 8 percent sequentially, including about 20,000 domestic deliveries and 3,000 overseas.
In the first four weeks of October, Xpeng domestic retail sales totaled 17,000 units, the team noted.
The team estimated Xpeng Mona M03 sedan deliveries in October to be around 10,000 units and other product deliveries to be around 13,000 units.
Based on dealer feedback, Xpeng new order flow is estimated at about 33,000 units in October, with about 20,000 units of the Mona M03 and 13,000 units of other products, Wang's team said.
The Mona M03 has been a great success, with more than 30,000 non-cancellable order backlog currently on hand, and wait times of 10-14 weeks and 13-17 weeks for the long range and ultra-long range versions, respectively, according to the team.
Xpeng's other product incentives remained stable in October, with the P7i sedan subsidized by RMB 20,000 to RMB 25,000 per unit, the G9 SUV subsidized by RMB 15,000 per unit, and the G6 SUV subsidized by RMB 10,000 to RMB 15,000 per unit.
Xpeng delivered 21,352 vehicles in September, and the Mona M03 delivered more than 10,000 units in its first full delivery month.
Deutsche Bank estimated that Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) will deliver about 55,000 units in October, up 36 percent year-on-year and up 2 percent sequentially, a new monthly delivery high.
The company's domestic retail sales totaled 45,500 units in the first four weeks of October, the team noted.
Based on dealer feedback, Li Auto's new order flow is expected to be around 57,000 units in October, compared to around 54,000 units in September, according to the team.
Li Auto began offering low-interest auto financing at 1.99 percent on all of its products, and other promotions remain unchanged, such as an additional purchase incentive of RMB 8,000 for the Li L6 and RMB 5,000 for the Li L7, Li L8, Li L9 and Li Mega.
Li Auto delivered a record 53,709 vehicles in September, up 48.94 percent year-on-year and up 11.61 percent from August.
Deutsche Bank estimates BYD's (HKG: 1211, OTCMKTS: BYDDY) wholesale volume -- from automaker to dealers -- will hit a record high of about 520,000 units in October, up 72 percent year-on-year and up 24 percent sequentially.
In the first four weeks of October, BYD's wholesale sales stood at 444,965 units and domestic retail sales at 369,000 units, according to the team.
Deutsche Bank estimated BYD's domestic deliveries in October to be around 420,000 units, up 10 percent sequentially and up 75 percent year-on-year, the highest monthly deliveries since its inception.
Based on dealer feedback, BYD's new order flow for October is estimated at about 550,000 units, compared with about 450,000 units in September, the team said.
BYD's wholesale sales of new energy-vehicles (NEVs) were at a record 419,426 units in September, the fourth consecutive month of record highs.
Deutsche Bank estimated Tesla's (NASDAQ: TSLA) deliveries in China would be around 47,000 units in October, up 53 percent year-on-year but down 34 percent sequentially.
Tesla China's domestic retail sales for the first four weeks of October totaled 34,000 units, the team noted.
Tesla China sold 88,321 China-made vehicles in September, including 16,121 exported, according to the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA).
The US EV maker sold 72,200 vehicles in China in September, exceeding August's 63,456 for a year-to-date high, CnEVPost calculations show.
On October 27, Tesla extended its five-year, 0 percent interest loan in China until November 30, further extending this car-buying incentive that began in April.
Yesterday, Model 3 wait time in China were shortened to 2-4 weeks from 4-6 weeks previously, with Model Y remaining unchanged at 1-3 weeks.
Deutsche Bank estimated Zeekr (NYSE: ZK) will deliver about 23,000 units in October, up 76 percent year-on-year and up 8 percent sequentially. This includes about 10,000 units of the Zeekr 7X SUV and about 13,000 units of other products.
Zeekr's domestic retail sales in the first four weeks of October totaled 20,000 units, according to the team.
Based on dealer feedback, Zeekr's new order flow in October is estimated to be around 22,000 units, compared to around 30,000 units in September, Deutsche Bank said.
On October 23, Zeekr launched its second MPV product, Zeekr Mix, with a price range of RMB 280,000 to RMB 300,000, with limited new orders so far, according to the team.
Zeekr delivered a record 21,333 vehicles in September, the second month over the 20,000 mark.
Wang's team estimated Leapmotor to deliver about 36,500 units in October, doubling year-on-year and up 8 percent sequentially. This includes domestic retail sales of about 34,500 units and exports of about 2,000 units.
Leapmotor's domestic retail volume totaled 29,000 units in the first four weeks of October.
Based on dealer feedback, Leapmotor's new order flow in October is estimated at 48,000 units, compared to about 40,000 units in September.
Thanks to the strong new order volume, the company reduced its promotional efforts in October by lowering the auto finance subsidy for the C01 sedan, C10, C11, and C16 SUV from RMB 10,000 per vehicle to RMB 5,000 per vehicle.
It also eliminated cash discounts of RMB 1,000 to RMB 1,500 per vehicle for the C01 sedan and C10 SUV, according to Deutsche Bank.
Leapmotor delivered 33,767 vehicles in September, marking the second consecutive month of more than 30,000 units as well as the fourth consecutive record month.
The team estimated that Aito will deliver about 35,000 units in October, flat year-on-year. Domestic retail sales of the Aito brand totaled 29,000 units in the first four weeks of October.
($1 = RMB 7.1319)
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