Deutsche Bank also expects Tesla to sell 45,000 units at retail in China in July, Li Auto at 48,000 units and Zeekr at 15,000 units.
Deutsche Bank expects Nio (NYSE: NIO) to continue to deliver more than 20,000 units in July, which would put it on track to exceed that mark for the third straight month.
In a research note sent to investors today, analyst Wang Bin's team shared their July delivery forecasts for major new energy vehicle (NEV) makers, saying it won't be easy to achieve sequential growth.
Specifically, the team expects Nio to retail 21,000 units in July, flat year-on-year and flat sequentially.
“NIO domestic retail sales totaled 13.3k units in the past three weeks of July, and we estimate NIO's full-month July delivery volume at ~21k units (flat YoY and flat MoM),” the team said.
Nio's new order flow is forecast to be around 22,000 units as its promotional efforts in the first 20 days of July are in line with its June policy, the team said.
However, Nio declared a RMB 5,000 ($690) reduction in promotion for the ES6 and EC6 and a RMB 3,000 reduction for the ET5 and ET5 Touring from July 22, the team noted.
This brought a meaningful spike in new orders before the promotion reduction, the team said.
Nio delivered 21,209 vehicles in June, surpassing its previous record of 20,544 in May to set a new high.
Wang's team expects Xpeng to retail 10,000 units in July, down 6 percent sequentially and down 9 percent year-on-year.
Xpeng's domestic retail sales in July are estimated at 8,500 units and overseas deliveries are estimated at 1,500 units, according to the team.
In the first three weeks of July, Xpeng's domestic retail sales totaled 5,400 units, the team said, adding that Xpeng offered more discounts to car buyers in July amid tough market conditions.
Earlier, in June, car buyers had to choose between a cash subsidy and a car finance interest rate subsidy. The company has started offering both cash subsidy and 0 percent interest car finance in the same amount as in June.
As a result, Xpeng offered subsidies ranging from RMB 15,000 to RMB 20,000 per unit for the P7i and RMB 15,000 per unit for the P5, G6 and G9, the team noted.
Xpeng doesn't have a large backlog of orders on hand at the moment, so the number of new orders is very similar to its deliveries, the team said, adding that all the products in its portfolio only have to wait 1-2 weeks to get the car.
Wang's team expects Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) to retail 48,000 units in July, slightly below the company's target of 50,000 units, up 41 percent year-on-year and flat sequentially.
Li Auto's domestic retail sales totaled 30,000 units in the first three weeks of July, the team said, adding that the company's new order flow is estimated to be around 46,000 units.
The team expects Tesla to retail 45,000 units in China in July, up 37 percent year-on-year while down 23 percent sequentially.
Tesla China's domestic retail sales in the first three weeks of July totaled 28,400 units, and its new order flow is expected to be 40,000-50,000 units, according to the team.
BYD's July retail sales are expected to be 300,000 units, up 8.5 percent sequentially and up 41 percent year-on-year, Wang's team said.
BYD's domestic retail sales totaled 194,000 units in the first three weeks of July, and based on dealer feedback, it has a pretty good flow of new orders in July, which are expected to exceed 300,000 units, the team said.
Deutsche Bank expects Zeekr (NYSE: ZK) to retail 15,000 units in July, up 25 percent year-on-year while down 25 percent sequentially.
Zeekr's domestic retail sales totaled 10,200 units in the first three weeks of July, and it has new orders estimated at about 15,000 units in July, the team said.
Leapmotor's retail volume in July is estimated at 21,000 units, up 46 percent year-on-year and up 4 percent sequentially.
Its domestic retail sales totaled 13,100 units in the first three weeks of July, and the C16 has received more than 10,000 orders since its June 28 launch, the team noted.
Huawei-backed Aito's retail volume in July is estimated at 43,000 units, up about 865 percent year-on-year and flat from June.
Domestic retail sales for the Aito brand totaled 27,000 units in the first three weeks of July, with new order flow estimated at around 25,000 units, according to the team.
It's worth noting that Aito's order backlog at the end of June was about 75,000 units, with about 20,000 of the M7 Ultra, 40,000 of the M9, and 15,000 of the M5, which will support 43,000 monthly deliveries in July, the team said.
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