The first product should be the third-generation battery swap station, followed by the EC7 and the second-generation ES8.
Hello and welcome to the Telescope. Every week we bring you fresh insight from the biggest car market in the world.
Today we are using the NIO (NYSE: NIO) EC6 behind me as a backdrop to predict what is about to happen on NIO Day 2022. Because one of the new products, I think, has some links to this car.
It's that time of the year. I know you think I am talking about Christmas, but I am talking about NIO Day, NIO's annual flagship user gathering, and product launch event.
I don't know why they always choose it to be around Christmas. Back in 2019 when it was still possible to invite international journalists, it took me quite some effort to convince them to attend the event at this ungodly time.
Anyway, you are stuck with me now. Here is what you can expect on NIO Day 2022.
Let me make myself clear, although I know what is about to happen, I only just left the company about two months ago, everything I am about to say are "educated guesses" based on current info that is already publicly available.
If you are a close follower of NIO, nothing I am about to say should surprise you. So don't treat this as a huge leak, because it isn't.
OK Here goes!
Gen3 Battery Swap Station
The first product should be the third Gen battery swap station. Because the power products always get revealed before the cars. According to patent files, its capacity will increase from holding 13 batteries from Gen 2 to 22 batteries in Gen 3.
Up until this point, all NIO batteries have the same physical dimensions. But the Gen 3 will be compatible with different size batteries.
That is a slight hint into the 800v batteries on the NT 3.0 cars, yes I know we are already talking about NT 3.0 when NT 2.0 feels is only starting out, and the mass market brand code name as Alps.
The 2nd product, or the first car, should be the EC7, which is a coupe version of the ES7, or EL7 in Europe. Prototype of the EC7 has also been leaked before. The biggest new feature we can see from the image is the active rear wing.
Interesting to see how NIO will further differentiate the coupe EC7 from the regular SUV ES7. Because the EC6 behind me has always been seen as a derivative of the ES6 and not different enough.
Another interesting point would be whether will there be any incremental updates from the ES7 to the EC7. Because that's what happened on EC6.
By having the advantage of launching later, the EC6 had all sorts of mini improvements that got correlated on the ES6 about 6 months later in the next model year update.
The 3rd and final product should be the 2nd gen ES8. It has already been publicized on the homologation website. This is it.
A lot of people are calling this a leak and an untimely release and I just want to say... It is not a leak.
Manufacturers always knew roughly when will the homologation be made public. And the timing of the homologation has nothing to do with NIO Day or marketing but with production.
It is released now because the mass production and delivery are very close and the homologation cannot be any later. That is the real significance of this release.
This ES8 could reach the market really quickly. Considering the Chinese New Year at the end of the year, March or April should be possible.
The car itself is 60mm longer in its wheelbase compared to Gen1, an identical increase from ES6 to ES7. And has all the gen 2 hardware that you would expect: LiDAR, four Orin chips, cameras all around, and the same 644ps powertrain from the ET7.
An interesting point to watch is how will NIO lift the ES8 above the ES7. Because the ES8 is an 8-level car, it has to be a meaningful step up from the already very competent ES7.
See you there!
So that is an early look at NIO Day 2022. I will be there of course, meeting lots of familiar faces and if you can listen to NIO Radio, I will be your guest commentator for NIO Day 2022. So see you there.