CITIC Securities expects to sell 140,320 units, China 87,182 units, 19,281 units, 19,447 units and 10,772 units in June.

(Image credit: CnEVPost)

With Covid's impact on China's auto industry fading, a leading local brokerage firm expects new energy vehicle (NEV) sales to hit a new record high this month.

With the recovery of factory capacity and the launch of new models, China's NEV sales are expected to reach 543,000 - 553,000 units in June, CITIC Securities said in a research note today.

For reference, after plunging in April due to Covid lockdowns in several cities, China's NEV wholesale sales rose 49.8 percent to 421,000 units in May from April, according to data released earlier this month by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA).

China's wholesale sales of passenger NEVs up 49.8% in May from April, CPCA data show-CnEVPost

If CITIC Securities' forecast comes true, it would mean that China's NEV sales will set another record in June, 7.5 percent higher than the previous record of 505,000 units in December last year.

In May, China's NEV sales reached 420,000 units, having largely recovered to March levels, with an electrification rate of 26 percent, CITIC Securities noted.

After some recovery in the capacity of NEV factories, NEV sales of brands including Tesla, Nio, Xpeng Motors and Li Auto have all rebounded, but Tesla, Nio and Xpeng were still down 51 percent, 9 percent and 34 percent respectively compared to March, the team said.

In terms of new model releases, the share of NEV models rose rapidly to 44 percent in the first five months of the year, CITIC Securities said, adding that the prices of these models are also rising.

The rising proportion of electric vehicles (EVs) in new models, coupled with the Covid epidemic causing consumer demand to be delayed, is expected to drive further increases in NEV penetration, the team said.

Considering the supply of models by brands and consumer acceptance of EVs, the NEV penetration rate is expected to reach 31 percent-32 percent in June, CITIC Securities said.

The team expects BYD to sell 140,320 units in June, Tesla China 87,182, Xpeng 19,281, Li Auto 19,447, Nio 10,772, 20,814, 21,767 and Leapmotor 17,423.

Most mainstream EV makers in China typically announce their delivery figures for the previous month on the first day of each month. The Tesla China team never publishes its own numbers, but these will be seen in the CPCA's mid-month report each month.