Following analysts' claims not long ago that BYD would move toward a market capitalization of RMB 1 trillion, there is now a more optimistic team.
In a research note released Wednesday, analysts at CSC Financial said strong demand for BYD's DM-i line of models, along with expectations of power cell supply to other companies, helps provide a valuation premium, and thus gave the company an RMB 1.5 trillion ($230 billion) market cap target.
The team believes that BYD's DM-i models are showing strong sales resilience in some parts of China, and as capacity bottlenecks are broken, sales resilience will be released nationwide, driving its new energy vehicle sales to continue to rise.
The company's accelerated supply chain opening to the outside world and continued progress in power battery supply to the outside world will open up room for revenue and earnings growth, the team said.
In July, BYD's market share in some markets rose to 4.88 percent from 1.34 percent in February before the delivery of the DM-i model, a more than three-fold increase in market share in those five months.
The team believes that the current DM-i model is in strong demand and sales are expected to continue to rise, referencing history to give 5.5x PS, corresponding to a valuation of RMB 990 billion.
The team believes that BYD's power battery business is valued at about RMB 400 billion, consumer electronics business at about RMB 50 billion and semiconductor business at about RMB 100 billion.
As of Wednesday's close, BYD's capitalization in the A-share market was RMB 844 billion, and the team's valuation estimate implies a 70 percent upside.
In early August, analysts at Huachuang Securities said BYD's market capitalization is on track to reach RMB 1 trillion, citing strong fundamentals including its auto business and battery business.
Huachuang's team estimates that BYD's total sales are expected to reach 60,000 units in July, including 20,000 pure electric vehicles and 30,000 hybrids. In the second half of the year, its Dolphin model will bring a new contribution to sales, and its premium products will further contribute to sales growth in the 2022-2023 period.
The team expects BYD's automotive business valuation to exceed RMB 400 billion, power battery valuation is expected to exceed RMB 400 billion, and the valuation of businesses including BYD Electronic, semiconductor, and solar power is about RMB 150 billion.
BYD's shares traded in Shenzhen closed Thursday up about 4.74 percent to RMB 308.98, with a market capitalization of RMB 884 billion.
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