Market researcher Counterpoint Research predicted last July that BYD (HKG: 1211, OTCMKTS: BYDDY) would overtake Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) for the first time in 2024 to become the global battery electric vehicle (BEV) leader.
However, as it turned out, Tesla still held the No. 1 spot in the global BEV market last year, though BYD came within a whisker of overtaking it.
Now, Counterpoint has released a new forecast that expects BYD to overtake Tesla as the global BEV leader for the first time in 2025.
Driven by scale, innovation and strong government support, BYD will top global BEV sales in 2025 with a 15.7 percent market share, the market researcher said in a report yesterday.
The milestone reflects the aggressive expansion BYD has achieved with its technology leadership and vertically integrated production model, all supported by strong domestic policies, Counterpoint said.
The market researcher highlighted BYD's 1,000-kW ultra-fast charging technology, 10C charging rate batteries, which it said set a new industry benchmark, outperforming Tesla's Supercharger.
In contrast, Tesla is facing multiple challenges.
Its public image has taken a hit due to CEO Elon Musk's political stance, which has sparked strong consumer opposition in major US and European markets, according to the report.
"Our early 2025 data have already been showing softening sales in these regions," Counterpoint wrote.
Geopolitical tensions, including the escalating US-China trade dispute and tariffs on Chinese EV components, are further disrupting Tesla's supply chain, the report said.
These factors, along with delayed product launches and increased competition, are expected to hamper Tesla's performance through 2025, Counterpoint said.
"CEO Elon Musk has scored somewhat of an own goal against Tesla and we are about to catch a glimpse of how much the company's sales were hurt in Q1 2025," said Liz Lee, associate director at Counterpoint.
"This is a big opportunity for BYD and if they deliver on the fast-charging promise, this could be the turning point for BYD and the China BEV story globally," Lee said.
Tesla released data yesterday showing it delivered 336,681 units worldwide in the first quarter, below Wall Street analysts' expectations of 390,343 and the lowest since the second quarter of 2022.
That's down 12.96 percent from 386,810 units in the same period a year earlier and down 32.06 percent from 495,570 units in the fourth quarter.
Tesla only makes BEVs, while BYD makes both BEVs and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs).
BYD sold 416,388 passenger BEVs in the first quarter, up 38.74 percent year-on-year but down 30.07 percent from the fourth quarter of last year.
This is the second consecutive quarter that BYD's passenger BEV sales were higher than Tesla's.
For all of 2024, Tesla continued to lead BYD in BEV sales by a slim margin.
The US EV maker delivered 1,789,226 vehicles globally in 2024, down 1.07 percent from 1,808,581 in 2023, the first decline in more than a decade.
For all of 2024, BYD sold 1,764,992 passenger BEVs globally, just 1.35 percent below Tesla's deliveries.
More on BYD
