Nio's retail sales in August are estimated at around 20,000 units, flat year-on-year and flat sequentially, Deutsche Bank said.
China's major electric vehicle (EV) players are expected to release delivery figures this Sunday, and before that, Deutsche Bank shared their forecasts.
Nio (NYSE: NIO)'s retail sales in August are estimated at 20,000 units, flat year-on-year and flat sequentially, analyst Wang Bin's team said in a research note sent to investors today.
In the first four weeks of August, Nio's domestic retail sales volume totaled 17,000 units, the team noted.
Based on dealer feedback, Nio's new order flow in August is estimated to be around 22,000 units, flat from the previous month, as the company adjusts promotions weekly based on fluctuations in new order volume, the team said.
For example, Nio reduced the promotions for its ES6 and EC6 SUVs (sport utility vehicles) by RMB 5,000 ($700) on July 22 and its ET5 and ET5T sedans by RMB 3,000, Wang's team wrote.
However, Nio started to offer an additional RMB 3,000 cash discount and RMB 5,000 worth of gifts such as wines and coupons for its ES6 and EC6 SUVs, as well as its ET5 and ET5T sedan, starting in August, according to the team.
Nio delivered 20,498 vehicles in July, marking the third consecutive month above the 20,000-unit mark. That was up 0.18 percent from 20,462 vehicles in the same month last year, although down 3.35 percent from 21,209 in June.
The company will report its unaudited financial results for the second quarter of 2024 on Thursday, September 5, before the US markets open.
Retail sales for Tesla's (NASDAQ: TSLA) China operations in August are estimated to be around 65,000 units, up 39 percent sequentially and flat year-on-year, according to Wang's team.
Tesla's retail sales in China totaled 57,000 units in the first four weeks of August, the team noted.
New order flow for Tesla's China business in August are estimated to be around 60,000 units, up 20 percent from a year earlier, according to dealer feedback, the team said.
Tesla extended its 5-year zero-interest auto finance program to September, with the same promotional efforts as in August and July, the team noted.
Tesla China sold 74,117 vehicles in July, including 27,890 exported and 46,227 sold in China, according to the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA).
The US EV maker's retail sales in China were up 47.11 percent last month from 31,423 units a year earlier, but down 21.99 percent from 59,261 in June.
Retail sales for BYD (HKG: 1211, OTCMKTS: BYDDY) in August are estimated at 370,000 units, up 19 percent sequentially and up 65 percent year-on-year, according to forecasts from Wang's team.
In the first four weeks of August, BYD's domestic retail sales totaled 330,000 units, the team said.
Based on dealer feedback, BYD's order flow in August hit a record high, estimated at around 450,000 units, driven mainly by its DM 5.0 technology products, according to the team.
Wang's team expects BYD's August wholesale volume -- from the automaker to dealers -- to hit a record of about 365,000 units, up 33 percent year-on-year and up 7 percent sequentially.
Retail sales for Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV) in August are estimated at 12,000 units, up 8 percent from a year ago, with domestic retail sales estimated at 10,000 units and overseas deliveries estimated at 2,000 units, according to the team.
In the first four weeks of August, Xpeng's domestic retail sales totaled 8,850 units, the team said.
In a tough market environment, Xpeng offered more discounts to P7i sedan buyers in August by offering a subsidy of RMB 20,000 to RMB 25,000 per unit, higher than the RMB 15,000 to RMB 20,000 per unit in July, according to the team.
Xpeng's cash discount for the P5, G6 and G9 remained unchanged at RMB15,000 per vehicle.
Xpeng currently does not have much order backlog on hand, with the number of new orders similar to August deliveries at an estimated 10,000 units for existing product, Wang's team said.
The team expects Xpeng to deliver 24,000 Mona M03 sedans in 2024, or an average of 6,000 units per month.
Xpeng officially launched the first model in the Mona lineup yesterday, the M03, which is half the price of the Tesla Model 3 and larger in size.
Wang's team expects Li Auto to retail 50,000 units in August, up 44 percent year-on-year and flat sequentially.
Li Auto's domestic retail sales volume totaled 45,000 units in the first four weeks of August, the team said, adding that new orders for Li Auto are estimated to be around 45,000 units based on dealer feedback.
Li Auto's promotional efforts have remained largely stable in August, Wang's team said.
Retail sales for Zeekr (NYSE: ZK) in August were estimated at 18,500 units, up 50 percent year-on-year and up 18 percent sequentially, according to the team. The company's domestic retail sales in the first four weeks of August totaled 14,000 units.
Thanks to the company's aggressive price cuts, Zeekr's new order flow in August is estimated at 19,000 units, up about 36 percent sequentially, according to dealer feedback.
Domestic retail sales for the Huawei-backed Aito brand totaled 28,000 units in the first four weeks of August, and deliveries for the full month of August are estimated at about 32,000 units, down 23 percent from a year earlier, Wang's team said.
A week-long "high temperature holiday" in August negatively impacted Aito production, resulting in fewer working days and a drop in wholesale and retail volumes, the team said.
New order flow for Aito is estimated at about 28,000 units, up 10 percent sequentially, thanks to the launch of the M7 Pro SUV, according to dealer feedback.
Leapmotor's retail sales in August are estimated at 25,000 units, up 76 percent year-on-year and 13 percent sequentially. Its domestic retail sales in the first four weeks of August totaled 22,600 units.
Based on dealer feedback, Leapmotor's new order flow for August is estimated at around 38,000 units, thanks to the contribution of the new C16 SUV, the team said.
($1 = RMB 7.1266)
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