Chinese car penetration is expected to rise to 16.5 percent in Europe and 12.8 percent in Southeast Asia by 2025, according to Canalys.

China auto exports expected to reach 4.4 million in 2023, over 30% to be NEVs, says Canalys-CnEVPost

China's total vehicle exports are expected to reach 4.4 million units in 2023, with new energy vehicles (NEVs) expected to account for more than 30 percent of the total, market research firm Canalys said in a report today.

China's auto exports have been climbing since 2020, surpassing Germany as the world's second-largest exporter in 2022. In the first quarter, China surpassed Japan as the world's largest auto exporter, with growth in NEVs exports the main reason for the overall increase, Canalys said.

In April, China's vehicle exports rose 142.40 percent to 424,200 units, up 9.61 percent from March, according to the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA).

In January-April, China's auto exports were 1.49 million units, up 71 percent year-on-year, according to the CPCA.

The core regions of China's auto export destinations are shifting from Africa, Central Asia and South Asia to more developed regions, including Europe and Southeast Asia, the report noted.

China's light vehicle exports to these two core regions contributed 5.9 percent and 7.6 percent of the country's vehicle exports in 2020, respectively. In 2022, the share was 22 percent and 14.3 percent, respectively, according to Canalys.

The average selling price of Chinese car exports increased from RMB 112,000 ($15,670) in 2021 to RMB 140,000 in 2022, up by more than 25 percent. In the European market, the figure was RMB 210,000 in 2022.

In 2022, Chinese automotive products had a penetration rate of 2.6 percent in the Southeast Asia region. By 2025, that figure is expected to rise to 12.8 percent, Canalys said.

In Europe, the penetration of Chinese cars is expected to rise to 16.5 percent by 2025, according to the report.

The average selling price of mainstream products in the European market is highly aligned with the average price of Chinese automotive exports, and consumers here are more aware of the NEV market, according to Canalys.

The overall light vehicle market volume in Europe and Southeast Asia is expected to grow to 13.7 million and 3.8 million units, respectively, by 2025, with NEVs penetrating more than 40 percent in Europe, Canalys said.

In 2021, the Covid pandemic caused instability in overseas supply chains and was the core reason for the growth of Chinese vehicle exports. After 2022, the growth of the overseas NEV market presents new opportunities, according to the report.

Chinese automakers have a first-mover advantage in electrification and vehicle intelligence, and have sufficient capacity and short product delivery times, Canalys said, adding that brands in other countries are lagging behind in the NEV transition and are falling short of expectations in core technology development.

($1 = RMB 7.1457)