Driverless travel to account for 60% of China's mobility market by 2030 with Baidu set to be leader, says IHS Markit

By 2030, unmanned vehicle travel will account for 60 percent of China's ride-hailing market, and Baidu could be the leader, says IHS Markit

Robotaxi will account for 60 percent of China's ride-hailing market with RMB 1.3 trillion by 2030, with Baidu likely to be the leader, IHS Markit said in an August 16 report.

Analysts predict that China's ride-hailing market will reach RMB 2.25 trillion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of between 20 - 28 percent.

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Over the next decade, the report said, the market share of new energy vehicles will continue to grow, driving the overall ride-hailing market and increasing population penetration as consumers become more accustomed to ride-hailing.

The analysts say the assembly cost of L4 is still the main bottleneck for development. How to strike a balance between the effectiveness and cost of core components of autonomous driving, such as chips and LiDAR, will be one of the goals of development in the next decade.

Price remains a sensitive point for users and car companies, and relying solely on the private car market will not enable rapid L4 development, the report says, adding that the future market is banking on business models for mobile mobility such as Robotaxi.

The analysts believe that the major players in Robotaxi will be concentrated in 2-3 service providers in the future, with the top providers likely to hold more than 40 percent of the market share.

The report says that technology giants such as Baidu will have a first-mover advantage in future competition with its early presence in connected cars and self-driving, with Baidu likely to be the leader.

The analysts expect Baidu's autonomous driving service Apollo to reach 38 percent of the overall adoption and market size by 2030, making it an autonomous driving mass production engine.

The analysts expect Baidu's in-car intelligent assistant DuerOS to have a 38 percent market share by 2025; 40 percent by 2030.

Baidu just released its second-quarter earnings report showing that Apollo L4 has accumulated more than 12 million kilometers of self-driving tests and has received 278 self-driving test licenses.

Baidu CEO Robin Li said the company would expand its unmanned vehicle operations to 30 cities, 3 million users and 3,000 vehicles by 2023.

With Robotaxi's RMB 1.3 trillion market size and 40 percent market share, Baidu's revenue from unmanned vehicle services is expected to reach RMB 520 billion in 2030.

Baidu unveiled its Apollo car robot on August 18 that has no steering wheel or pedals, but is equipped with an oversized curved screen.

The company said the Apollo car robot has L5 self-driving capability, voice, face recognition and other interaction capabilities, and can also self-learn and continuously upgrade, making it an intelligent body that serves various scenarios.