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China's new energy passenger car penetration rate, or its share of all new vehicle sales, is expected to reach 13 percent this year, according to Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA).
By 2025, China's new energy passenger car penetration is expected to exceed 25 percent, Cui said in an article published Monday, adding that the potential for the share to top 50 percent by 2030 is high.
Cui made the call based on the rapid growth of China's new energy vehicle industry this year, saying he believes the CPCA's June forecast for the country's new energy passenger vehicle sales to reach 2.51 million units this year was conservative and will be revised upward in the future.
Wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China accounted for 15 percent of all vehicle sales in June and 11 percent from January to June, up from 5.8 percent in the same period in 2020, according to the CPCA.
"Demand for new energy vehicles continues to be released, driving a rapid increase in penetration," China Industrial Securities analysts previously said.
2021 is a year of explosive global demand for new energy vehicle markets, with a concentration of premium models coming to market, driving continued high private consumption, the team said.
William Li, founder, chairman, and CEO of Nio, has previously predicted that an increase in the share of electric vehicles in China's new car sales from 10 percent to 20 percent will certainly be achieved within two years.
He believes that this year is a historic year for China's new energy vehicle industry, as sales of new energy vehicles exceeded 460,000 units in the first quarter and will certainly reach over 2 million units for the year.
He Xiaopeng, chairman and CEO of Xpeng Motors, is even more optimistic, as he expects China's new energy vehicle penetration rate to reach 30 percent by 2025.
Cheng Siqi, the chief automotive analyst at CSC Financial, said in a June report that the trend of hybrid vehicles replacing fuel vehicles is accelerating and that China's new energy vehicle penetration is expected to exceed expectations.
The share of new energy vehicles in China's auto market is expected to reach 70 percent by 2030, he said.
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