The price of the China-made Tesla Model 3 keeps getting lower as it adopts more local parts, especially the battery. Now there are reports that Tesla may even use China-made motors and the possibility of Teslas 100% made in China grows more realistic.
According to Nikkei Asia, word circulated at the recent Beijing International Automotive Exhibition that the Model 3 will adopt a China-made motor in addition to a battery.
A number of Chinese companies are regarded as capable of supplying motors to Tesla. One candidate is Suzhou Inovance Automotive, which according to a securities house analysis has already supplied motors to emerging Chinese electric vehicle makers such as WM Motor and Li Auto. Starting with Tesla, Inovance is set to add major foreign EV producers to its customer list, the Nikkei report said.
Tesla has already adopted batteries produced by Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), China's largest automotive lithium-ion battery maker.
Chinese companies are emerging as suppliers of not only batteries but also other components for electric vehicles.
A Chinese research firm reported that Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls, a maker of heat-control parts for electric vehicles, has Tesla, Volkswagen and General Motors on its customer list. In addition, Xiamen Hongfa Electroacoustic, which manufacturers electronic parts for EVs, is already doing business with Tesla, VW and Daimler, Nikkei noted.
On October 1, the China-made Tesla Model 3 began a new round of price cuts: the Model 3 with a standard driving range is adjusted to RMB 249,900 ($36,800) after subsidies, while the one with a longer range follows with a price cut to RMB 309,900 yuan. And it's only been five months since the last price cut.
According to Ping An Securities, considering the gross margin of the product and the positioning of the model, RMB 200,000 could be the bottom line for the China-made Model 3, and another price cut is expected in the first half of next year.
Ping An Securities expects Model 3 average gross margins to be around 20% in 2019, with an average cost per unit of around $38,400.
A cost breakout of the 2019 Model 3 produced in the US, based on financial data from key suppliers, industry data, and other publicly available information, is expected to have an average unit BOM cost of approximately $31,400, or approximately 82% of the total cost.
Ping An Securities forecasts each of the China-made Model 3 cost breakdown items separately by model and by China-made parts adoption rate.
Compared to the US plant, the Shanghai plant has a greater cost advantage over the US plant in terms of raw materials, labor, and depreciation, in addition to higher energy and logistics costs.
With the increase in the proportion of China-made parts, there is still room for China-made Model 3 prices to decline on the basis of ensuring reasonable profits, Ping An said.
