- The CAAM projects China's overall passenger vehicle sales will reach 34.75 million units in 2026, representing a 1% year-on-year increase.
- The CAAM forecasts China's automotive exports in 2026 to reach 7.4 million units, a 4.3% year-on-year increase.
A major Chinese automotive industry association anticipates China's new energy vehicle (NEV) sales will continue growing in 2026, albeit at a slower pace.
China's NEV sales are projected to reach 19 million units in 2026, reflecting a 15.2% year-on-year increase, according to a report released Wednesday by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM).
In 2025, China's NEV sales totaled 16.49 million units, marking a 28.2% year-on-year growth, the report said.
| Year | Sales | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 1,323,705 | - |
| 2021 | 3,507,000 | 164.9% |
| 2022 | 6,872,000 | 96.0% |
| 2023 | 9,448,000 | 37.5% |
| 2024 | 12,859,000 | 36.1% |
| 2025 | 16,490,000 | 28.2% |
| 2026e | 19,000,000 | 15.2% |
The CAAM forecasts China's overall passenger vehicle sales will reach 34.75 million units in 2026, representing a 1% year-on-year increase.
This implies China's NEV penetration rate will reach 54.7% in 2026, up from 47.9% in 2025.
China's passenger vehicle sales are projected to reach 30.25 million units in 2026, a 0.5% year-on-year increase; Commercial vehicle sales are projected to reach 4.5 million units, a 4.7% year-on-year increase.
The CAAM forecasts China's automotive exports to reach 7.4 million units in 2026, a 4.3% year-on-year increase.
In 2025, China exported 7.1 million vehicles, a 21.1% year-on-year increase. Among these, NEV exports reached 2.62 million units, a 100% year-on-year increase.
In 2025, China's total vehicle sales reached 34.4 million units, marking a 9.4% year-on-year increase and securing its position as the world's largest market for the 17th consecutive year, according to the CAAM.
However, the CAAM noted that domestic demand growth remains sluggish, with persistent downward economic pressures and subdued income expectations constraining consumer spending power.
Global geopolitical uncertainties, economic sluggishness, and intensifying trade disputes have created a challenging environment for China's automotive exports, according to the CAAM.
