- The outcome of China-EU negotiations — replacing high tariffs with price undertakings —has preserved core market access for Chinese EVs in the EU, Cui said.
- During the initial implementation phase of the mechanism, some automakers may experience short-term sales fluctuations as they adjust product pricing and portfolios.
Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), projected that Chinese electric vehicle (EV) exports to the EU will maintain an average annual growth rate of about 20% between 2026 and 2028, despite potential short-term fluctuations.
This forecast follows the China-EU agreement on price undertakings to resolve their EV trade dispute. On Monday, China's Ministry of Commerce announced that both sides had agreed to provide Chinese exporters of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) to the EU with common guidance on price commitments.
The outcome of China-EU negotiations to replace high tariffs with price undertakings represents a significant pragmatic breakthrough for mutual benefit, preserving core market access for Chinese EVs in the EU, Cui said in a commentary published Monday.
Chinese brands have already captured over 10% of Europe's EV market share in 2025, with domestic automakers experiencing rapid growth in the EU, and this achievement will further solidify that momentum, he noted.
At the same time, price constraints will force automakers to move away from low-price competition, accelerating their transition toward premium positioning and localized production in Europe, according to Cui.
Cui believes that during the initial implementation phase of the price commitment mechanism, some automakers may experience short-term sales fluctuations as they adjust product pricing and portfolios.
As automakers adapt to the new rules, localized production capacity ramps up, and product competitiveness improves, their sales will gradually rebound, he said.
Cui emphasized that differentiation will become a key competitive factor for automakers in Europe. Examples include Nio Inc's (NYSE: NIO, HKG: 9866) battery swap model, BYD's (HKG: 1211, OTCMKTS: BYDDY) CTB (Cell to Body) technology, and Xpeng's (NYSE: XPEV, HKG: 9868) smart driving systems.
These Chinese automakers will attract EU consumers through unique technological and service advantages, moving beyond pure price competition to achieve a shift from "price advantage" to "value advantage," he said.
The price undertakings will replace the EU's previously imposed high anti-subsidy duties. In October 2024, the European Commission decided to implement additional tariffs for a five-year period, with rates ranging from 7.8% to 35.3% for different manufacturers, layered on top of a 10% base tariff.
China exported 2.07 million BEV models from January to November 2025, with 580,000 units — or 28% — destined for the EU, according to CPCA data.
During the same period, China exported 940,000 plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), with the EU accounting for 250,000 units, or 27%.
