Ahead of China's major electric vehicle (EV) makers releasing September delivery figures in a week, Deutsche Bank has shared its forecasts as usual.
Monthly deliveries for players including Nio Inc (NYSE: NIO), Xiaomi EV, Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV), and Leapmotor (HKG: 9863) are expected to hit new highs as the peak sales season arrives.
Nio Inc: 35,000 units
Analyst Wang Bin's team estimated in a research note yesterday that Nio Inc's September deliveries would reach a record 35,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of about 65 percent and a month-on-month rise of about 12 percent.
Deliveries for the Nio, Onvo, and Firefly brands are estimated at roughly 15,000, 15,000, and 5,000 units respectively.
Based on dealer feedback, Nio Inc's new order flow in September is projected to surge by about 67 percent month-on-month to around 100,000 units, according to the team.
New order flow for the Nio, Onvo, and Firefly brands are estimated at about 80,000, 15,000, and 5,000 units respectively, primarily driven by robust demand for the flagship Nio ES8 SUV.
Deutsche Bank noted that the Onvo brand faced some battery supply shortages in September, forcing the company to strategically allocate more batteries from the L60 SUV to the new L90 SUV.
In other words, as battery supply improves, Onvo brand volume could increase sequentially, the team said.
In the first three weeks of this month, Nio Inc's insurance registrations totaled 19,110 units, comprising 7,535 from the Nio main brand, 8,050 from Onvo, and 3,525 from Firefly, according to data compiled by CnEVPost.
Nio Inc delivered a record 31,305 vehicles in August, comprising 10,525 from the Nio main brand, 16,434 from Onvo, and 4,346 from Firefly.
The company aims to deliver 150,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter, averaging 50,000 deliveries per month, its management said during an earnings call earlier this month.
Tesla: 72,000 units
Deutsche Bank estimates Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) will deliver about 72,000 vehicles in China in September, representing a month-on-month increase of about 27 percent and remaining flat year-on-year.
Based on dealer feedback, Tesla China's new order flow in September is projected to grow about 14 percent year-on-year to roughly 73,000 units, primarily driven by the launch of the new six-seat long-wheelbase Model Y L SUV, despite a month-on-month decline of about 44 percent, the team said.
The US EV maker launched the Model Y L in China on August 19, with deliveries commencing earlier this month.
Customers currently ordering the six-seat SUV are expected to receive deliveries in November, according to Tesla China's website.
In the first three weeks of September, Tesla's insurance registrations in China totaled 46,950 units.
Tesla's August retail sales in China came in at 57,152 units, down 9.93 percent from 63,456 units in the same period last year, though up 40.71 percent from July's 40,617 units, according to data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA).
Xiaomi EV: 42,000 units
Deutsche Bank forecasts Xiaomi EV deliveries in September to reach a record 42,000 units, marking a 15 percent month-on-month increase and about 210 percent year-on-year growth.
According to dealer feedback, Xiaomi EV's new order flow is estimated at about 25,000 units in September, including roughly 15,000 for the YU7 SUV and 10,000 for the SU7 sedan, the team noted.
Deutsche Bank attributes the month-on-month growth in Xiaomi EV deliveries to improved supply, noting that August production rose 22 percent month-on-month to 37,380 units -- significantly higher than the average monthly output of around 30,000 units so far in 2025.
The team expects capacity enhancements to boost Xiaomi EV's monthly production to over 50,000 units in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Xiaomi EV's insurance registrations totaled 26,790 units in the first three weeks of September.
Its deliveries reached 36,396 units in August, marking the second consecutive month exceeding the 30,000-unit threshold following July's 30,452 units, according to data compiled by CnEVPost.
BYD: 380,000 Units
Deutsche Bank estimates BYD (HKG: 1211) wholesale volume in September at about 380,000 units, representing a month-on-month increase of about 2 percent and a year-on-year decline of about 9 percent.
In the first three weeks of September, BYD Group's wholesale volume -- from automaker to dealer -- reached 234,802 units, with retail sales at 206,000 units, the team noted.
Deutsche Bank expects BYD's domestic deliveries in September to be around 320,000 units, a 6 percent month-on-month increase but a 17 percent year-on-year decline.
BYD's retail pricing discounts remained largely unchanged to align with the government's "anti-involution" campaign, with new orders for the BYD brand expected to total around 320,000 units in September -- a month-on-month decline of about 2 percent, the team cited dealer feedback as saying.
Earlier this month, Reuters reported that BYD had lowered its 2025 vehicle sales target from 5.5 million units to 4.6 million units.
Li Auto: 35,000 units
Deutsche Bank estimates Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) will deliver about 35,000 vehicles in September, representing a month-on-month increase of about 23 percent but a year-on-year decline of about 35 percent.
Dealer feedback indicates Li Auto's new order flow for September is projected between 50,000 and 55,000 units, representing a 9-20 percent month-on-month increase.
This growth will be primarily driven by the upcoming launch of the Li i6 pure-electric SUV on September 26, which is expected to contribute 12,000 to 17,000 non-cancellable orders for September, the team said.
The company's insurance registrations for the first three weeks of September totaled 22,770 units, according to data compiled by CnEVPost.
Xpeng: 40,000 units
Deutsche Bank expects Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV) to deliver about 40,000 units in September, a 6 percent month-on-month increase and a new monthly delivery record.
Of these, domestic retail deliveries are estimated at around 37,000 units, with overseas deliveries at about 3,000 units.
Based on dealer feedback, Xpeng is expected to receive around 45,000 new orders in September, a 13 percent month-on-month decline, due to reduced new orders for the G7 SUV and the new-generation P7 sedan.
Xpeng achieved domestic retail sales of 24,000 units in the first three weeks of September, the team noted.
Leapmotor: 63,000 units
Deutsche Bank forecasts Leapmotor's September deliveries will reach a record 63,000 units, marking a month-on-month increase of about 10 percent and a year-on-year growth of about 87 percent.
Domestic retail sales are estimated at around 56,000 units, with exports totaling about 7,000 units.
The company achieved domestic retail sales of 37,000 units during the first three weeks of September, according to Deutsche Bank.
Based on dealer feedback, Leapmotor's new order flow in September is expected to increase by about 13 percent month-on-month to around 63,000 units, primarily driven by growth in new orders for the C-series SUVs.
Aito: 45,000 units
Deutsche Bank projects that Huawei-backed Aito will deliver 45,000 units in September, representing a year-on-year increase of about 24 percent and a month-on-month rise of about 14 percent.
Aito's domestic retail sales reached 26,000 units in the first three weeks of September, the team said.
Dealer feedback indicates Aito's new order flow for September is projected to surge about 400 percent month-on-month to around 130,000 units, driven by the launch of the new-generation M7 SUV.
Deutsche Bank expects the M7 to contribute over 100,000 non-cancellable orders in September.
