- Chinese customers ordering the all-new ES8 now can expect deliveries 24-26 weeks after order confirmation.
- The new ES8 has a production capacity of 40,000 units for the remainder of this year, with 15,000 units slated for December.
Nio Inc's (NYSE: NIO) mobile app now displays estimated delivery wait times for the all-new ES8 SUV (sport utility vehicle), confirming that production capacity for this year is completely sold out.
Chinese customers ordering any of the three ES8 variants now are expected to receive deliveries 24-26 weeks after order confirmation -- meaning as early as March 2026, according to Nio App data monitored by CnEVPost.
Nio officially launched the third-generation ES8 at Nio Day 2025 on September 20, with deliveries commencing the following day on September 21.
The model offers three variants: the six-seat Executive Luxury Edition, seven-seat Executive Luxury Edition, and six-seat Executive Signature Edition. The first two both start at RMB 406,800 ($57,180), while the third begins at RMB 446,800.
Under the BaaS (Battery as a Service) plan, the starting prices for these variants are RMB 298,800, RMB 298,800, and RMB 338,800 respectively. Currently, only the 100-kWh battery pack is available for the ES8, with a monthly BaaS battery rental fee of RMB 1,128.
Nio founder, chairman, and CEO William Li pledged at the new ES8 launch event that the production capacity for the model would exceed 40,000 units this year.
During a September 2 earnings call, Nio management said the new ES8 would reach 10,000 units monthly production capacity in October and 15,000 units by December.
Despite its high price tag, the third-generation ES8 is viewed as offering good value, considering its price reduction of about 30 percent compared to its predecessor.
Aggressive pricing has fueled the new ES8's success while straining Nio's production capacity.
Meanwhile, China's new energy vehicle (NEV) purchase tax exemption will diminish by year-end, imposing additional tax costs on consumers receiving deliveries next year.
Nio is attempting to alleviate potential customer concerns by pledging to cover losses incurred from next year's reduced purchase tax incentives if production constraints prevent this year's orders from being delivered within 2025.
The company further promises that if customers experience delivery delays exceeding 8 weeks (56 days) for the new ES8, they will receive compensation points worth RMB 50 per day starting from the 57th day after order confirmation.
Deutsche Bank analyst Wang Bin's team believes the new ES8 boasts highly competitive pricing and robust order backlog, projecting average monthly sales of about 11,000 units in the fourth quarter.
During dealer visits on September 21, the team found that the order conversion rate -- from cancellable to non-cancellable orders -- exceeded 50 percent, they said in a research note on September 22.
"In other words, the ES8 SUV's non-cancellable orders are estimated to exceed 50k units at some point in 2025," the team wrote. They estimate cancellable orders for the new ES8 exceed 100,000 units.
($1 = RMB 7.1147)
