Edison Yu's team expects overall Chinese EV sales to set a new record in June and continue to increase through the rest of the year.
China's major electric vehicle (EV) makers have already released June delivery figures, showing the industry's apparent recovery from the impact of Covid.
As always, Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu's team provided their take on what they call the "Fab 5" of EV makers - NIO, XPeng Motors, Li Auto, Zeekr, and Hozon Neta.
The following is from the team's note.
Fab 5 China EV sales came in generally better than expected in June as the industry appears to have fully recovered from the COVID lock-downs.
XPeng reclaimed the top spot in terms of volume while NIO, LI, and Hozon Neta essentially sold the same amount.
In particular, we highlight NIO's ET7 sold 4,349 units (up 2.5x MoM), showing a very healthy production ramp-up. XPeng's P7 sedan sales also nearly doubled MoM.
Overall, we expect overall EV sales to set a new record in June and to continue increasing through the rest of the year.
June EV sales
XPeng delivered 15,295 units (+51% MoM; +133% YoY), slightly above our forecast. Flagship P7 sedan volume nearly doubled MoM to 8,045 and P5 volume also improved meaningfully while thecompany continues to de-emphasize the low margin G3 model.
In August, XPeng plans to begin accepting pre-orders for its new G9 SUV which should start deliveries in September.
Li Auto delivered 13,024 units (+13% MoM, +69% YoY), coming in ahead of our forecast. Li Auto's second model, the L9 full-size EREV SUV, was officially unveiled in June and will start deliveries by the end of August.
The L9 garnered +30,000 customer reservations after only 3 days (paid a 5,000 RMB deposit). Li Auto exited the month with 247 retail stores and 308 servicing centers.
NIO delivered 12,961 units (+85% MoM; +60% YoY), exceeding our forecast. The new flagship ET7 sedan continued to ramp with June delivering 4,349 units vs. 1,707 in May, implying it has almost reached its target capacity (5,000).
EC6 sales were softer than anticipated, perhaps suggesting some cannibalization from upcoming new ES7 which was officially unveiled in June and will begin deliveries in late August.
Zeekr delivered 4,302 units, essentially flat MoM.
Hozon sold 13,157 units of its Neta-branded BEVs (+20% MoM; +156% YoY).