In the first half of 2020, due to the epidemic and other factors, domestic automobile production and sales dropped 16.8% and 16.9% year-on-year respectively, and the financing of Telematics companies also fell into a bottleneck.
with above, on September 27th, Securities Daily hosted an event titled "Trillion-Dollar Telematics Market, Who's Afloat?" in Beijing.
Cui Yan(Huaxi Securities chief auto industry analyst), Li Dan(FAW Group Intelligent Network Institute President), Li Qia(China Express intelligent driving and electrical and electronic vice president), Su Tan(Baidu Telematics Division General Manager), Yu Kai(Zongmu Technology CEO Tang Rui, Horizon CEO) gathered together to discuss the present and future of the Telematics, Telematics technology route controversy and other topics.
Vehicle and Road Synergy
Different styles of companies have different choices when exploring the path of automated driving, and there are currently two main technology paths in the market: traditional car companies generally follow the path of L2 to L5 to achieve automated driving, progressively.
On the other hand, many Internet companies, , cut straight to the advanced technology in the hope of reaching L4 in one step.
It's like climbing Mount Everest, one south line and one north line, the south line is relatively flat; the north line is steep and difficult, but walking up will save time.
"From the perspective of traditional OEMs (original equipment manufacturers), I am more in favor of climbing up from the south line, that is, from L2 step by step to cut in, first to give users convenience in certain scenarios, if we are also like Internet companies, trying to step to reach more than L4 may not be able to bear." Li Dan said.
The autopilot route taken by the vast majority of companies today is fundamentally different, Li Quan advised.
In terms of the broad technical route, they all fall under the category of bicycle intelligence.
"I personally have doubts about cycling intelligence going above L4, and what I agree more is that inside the field of more advanced automatic driving, there will definitely be different solutions, because cycling has different defects that can't be solved simply by technology."
If you only work on one dimension of bicycle intelligence, the marginal benefits of optimization will be diminishing and it will be difficult to meet expectations.
Sultan believes that car networking must work together on vehicle-side intelligence and road-side intelligence. Baidu L4 level automatic driving has been run up in many cities across the country.
Sutan said: "Many passenger cars have chosen our Telematics solution, and some fuel vehicles from traditional car companies have also accessed the solution.
The program includes micro-level applications such as speed measurement and accident alerts that we do, and also applies sensor means to form a closed loop of data and send the information back to the cloud to form a closed loop of cloud perception at the roadside."
"South slope north slope" is actually the difference between business models, some companies choose the business model is the operating route, while many OEMs have to consider selling the car as a commodity first, which determines the two models on the underlying cost-sensitive, supply chain needs are different.
Tang Rui said there is only one summit, whether it is the south or north slope, the goal is to climb to the top, and in the process of climbing, there may be a new integration as well as a new boundary.
"Tesla's route is becoming clearer and clearer, it should follow its course.
"Yu Kai believes that "just like the early stage of smartphone development, many manufacturers are arguing about what the future is, and there are a variety of claims, but when Apple's first generation of mobile phones came out, the manufacturers who did not follow up gradually disappeared."
The trend of ecological integration
In 2019, the penetration rate of EVs will reach nearly 5%, touching the tipping point between the introduction period and the growth period, and the EV industry can be expected to enter the growth period soon.
So, in the process of industry-wide changes, which areas will car companies and core suppliers focus on in the future?
"Tesla's success is not by electrification, but by intelligence, leading the user needs is the ultimate concept of car building.
"Li Dan believes that Tesla abandoned the traditional fetters, all the components can do it themselves, but as the traditional OME difficult to do chips, traditional car companies should be joint collaboration with the new forces of Internet car manufacturing.
First of all, the real core technology must be mastered in our own hands; secondly, technology companies and traditional car enterprises group development, win-win cooperation; again, we need to divide each other and work in pairs."
For the integration problem, Li Qian cited mobile phones as an example, saying that in addition to Apple's system there is Android, and they use a way to establish alliances.
"Nowadays, both the new forces in car manufacturing and traditional car companies have the opportunity to unite upstream and downstream suppliers to build an eco-system and promote the development of smart networking.
But to establish such an alliance, some basic breakthroughs need to be made.
First of all, we should make a breakthrough in the basic technology, without the technology, the dream is difficult to realize, and then build an ecological alliance on this basis to achieve win-win cooperation."
In fact, whether it is networking or intelligent driving, in the end, it is still talking about the intelligence of the car.
Su Tan admitted that the significance of the alliance is very important, the mobile Internet field has not solved the compatibility problem, while the automotive field in the future will certainly form the trend of ecological integration to maximize the interests of consumers.
Tang Rui believes that some changes should take place in the development mode of enterprises, such as the separation of software and hardware, hardware first input, after software upgrades to reduce costs.
"Not all car companies can learn Tesla, so in the new situation, the host company, suppliers, chip factory should reach 'I have you, you have me' this kind of very close cooperation relationship." Tang Rui said as such.
"We want to build smart products for the smart era, there is a prerequisite, to have an intelligent R & D organization.
"Yu Kai believes that the underlying computing chip architecture will eventually lead to a "winner-takes-all" outcome.
The underlying chip-based enterprise must be an ecological enterprise, and many ecological connections, the chip itself has meaning.
Each host company should be from its own resource endowment, to find their own positioning in the future era of intelligent travel.
"Now the threshold of the car smart chip is very high, from the investment in research and development to earn the first cent to take five years, today there are only three chip companies towards mass production, so the host company should focus on big things, the task of all the chips to the horizon."